The stainless steel seamless pipe market has slowed down the rebound, and the market has entered a state of shock and stagnation. Especially when the current market has entered the off-season, if the price of stainless steel seamless tube wants to have a new rise, injecting new benefits will become a necessary condition. However, as far as the current market is concerned, the only bright spot is still environmental protection and production restriction.
The key factors affecting the price trend of stainless steel seamless pipe in the later stage are the actual landing of the production restriction policy, the implementation of the policy, and whether there is a blast furnace production restriction in the follow-up. If consistent with expectations or exceeding expectations, the market is expected to break through the weak shocks and open up a wave of upward market; if the implementation of production restrictions is not as strong as expected, the stainless steel seamless tube market will still face repeated shocks, and the market will again deduce the previous ups and downs, and the market will confirm a new direction in the repeated shocks.
The basic logic that influences the price trend is still the game between supply and demand. From the perspective of supply contraction expectation with the highest market expectation, the implementation plan of staggered peak production in heating season of stainless steel enterprises issued by Tangshan basically meets the market expectation, but it does not exceed the market expectation compared with the 50%-55% production limitation ratio in Wuan area of Handan, which has been implemented in the earlier period.
Only need to be reminded of the uncertainty of stainless steel seamless pipe capacity and iron wrist environmental protection on stainless steel supply restraint. The reason is very simple. Stainless steel production is profitable. The fierce competition forces enterprises to squeeze market share with larger output. The backward production capacity such as "strip steel" will also be released by all means to bypass the supervision part. All these have led to the uncertainty of the supply of stainless steel seamless pipe market, the uncertainty of supply and demand relationship, and eventually the wide price fluctuation.
Especially in terms of demand, in recent years, the demand in Northeast and Northwest China has shrunk obviously, but some parts of North China resumed construction after the end of the 19th National Congress, while the southern region is still in the peak season of construction site, and the overall demand situation remains at a relatively high level. However, the stoppage of construction sites and cement industry in North China during the heating season still has a certain impact on the overall demand. In addition, the market is still pessimistic about the demand for real estate and infrastructure in the later period. The short-term demand for stainless steel seamless tubes is expected to weaken steadily.
On the export side, the continuing downturn in exports equals that Chinese stainless steel enterprises lack a shock absorber in price, which adds too much uncertainty to the price trend in the later period.
Overall, the current northern stainless steel plant heating season production restriction has been implemented successively, the blast furnace start-up rate has declined, the industrial chain inventory has maintained a low level, forming a strong support for the price trend of stainless steel seamless tubes. The market is still pessimistic about the demand for real estate and infrastructure in the later period. Therefore, in the case of both supply and demand shrinking, the game of seamless stainless steel pipe market in the later period depends on who is slowing down faster. Because there is no new hype factor coming in, it is expected that the seamless stainless steel pipe market will continue to shake and adjust the market, and there will be no new breakthroughs in the short term.